June 17, 2013Daily Rates & Viewpoints From the Officers & Staff of TIB.

Economic Calendar

Day Date Release Survey Prior
Mon 6/17 Empire Manufacturing 0.00 -1.43
Mon 6/17 NAHB Housing Market Index 45 44
Tue 6/18 Consumer Price Index (MoM) 0.2% -0.4%
Tue 6/18 CPI Ex Food & Energy (MoM) 0.2% 0.1%
Tue 6/18 Consumer Price Index (YoY) 1.4% 1.1%
Tue 6/18 CPI Ex Food and Energy (YoY) 1.7% 1.7%
Tue 6/18 CPI Core Index SA 233.255 232.879
Tue 6/18 Consumer Price Index NSA 233.057 232.531
Tue 6/18 Housing Starts 950K 853K
Tue 6/18 Housing Starts MOM% 11.4% -16.5%
Tue 6/18 Building Permits 975K 1005K
Tue 6/18 Building Permits MOM% -3.0% 12.9%
Wed 6/19 FOMC Rate Decision 0.25% 0.25%
Thu 6/20 Initial Jobless Claims 340K 334K
Thu 6/20 Continuing Claims 2954K 2973K
Thu 6/20 Philadelphia Fed -2.0 -5.2
Thu 6/20 Existing Home Sales 5.00M 4.97M
Thu 6/20 Existing Home Sales MOM 0.6% 0.6%
Thu 6/20 Leading Indicators 0.2% 0.6%
 

BQ Muni Calendar

Date State Issuer $ Amt (MM)
6/17 TX BRAZORIA CO MUD#25 NEGOTIATED $ 5.32
6/17 TX HARRIS CNTY MUD#230 NEGOTIATED $ 4.47
6/17 TX HURST NEGOTIATED $ 7.68
6/17 TX RICHMOND CITY NEGOTIATED $ 6.63
6/17 TX RICHMOND CITY NEGOTIATED $ 2.23
6/18 TX RICHLAND HILLS - CRET OBLIG COMPETITIVE $ 6.16
6/20 TX MONTGOMERY CO MUD #84 COMPETITIVE $ 2.8
 

2013 FOMC Meetings:

June 19

July 31

Sep. 18

Oct. 30

Dec. 18

Market Levels @ 7:15 AM CDT

TIB Fed Funds & MMDA Rates - Previous Day
Agent 0.20% Prin 0.05% MMDA 0.30%
STAR Prin 0.10% STAR MMDA 0.35%
Key Indices/Commodities
1 - Month LIBOR 0.19% Dow Jones 15070.18
3 - Month LIBOR 0.27% NASDAQ 100 3423.55
1-Yr LIBOR 0.66% S&P 500 1630.00
1-Yr CMT 0.13% Spot Gold 1384.10
Prime 3.25% Spot Silver 21.81
3-yr LIBOR Swap/Offer 0.63% Spot Crude Oil 98.25
5-yr LIBOR Swap/Offer 1.20% CRB Index 286.40
3 Mo - Fed Fund Futures 0.11% 6 Mo - Fed Fund Futures 0.11%
US Treasury Yields US Non-Callable Agency Yields
Yield Maturity Yield Spread
0.00% 90 - Days    
0.00% 180 - Days    
0.20% 2 - Year 0.30% 10bp
0.43% 3 - Year 0.55% 12bp
0.97% 5 - Year 1.21% 24bp
2.08% 10 - Year 2.37% 29bp
3.25% 30 - Year    
188 BPs Yield Curve(2's-10's)
Sample 1x Callable Agency Issues
Description Call Date YTC YTM
FHLMC 1.3 6/26/18 6/15 1.35% 1.35%
Select MBS Levels
Description Coupon Yield Spread/Duration*
15-Yr FNMA 3.00% 1.58% 99 / 3.23
30-Yr GNMA 3.50% 2.35% 128 / 4.61
*Duration @ 12 month Historical CPR
Morning Commentary: Blake Scharlach

Two hours into the trading day, it appears that the stock market is figuring out what the bond market figured out late last week – that it’s probably still a bit premature for the Fed to begin its tapering of stimulus right now.  After headline unemployment moved in the wrong direction last month and inflation numbers showing lower than the Fed would like, the Fed is likely to not reduce its stimulus after this meeting.  Bernanke is scheduled to speak on Wednesday after the Fed wraps up its meeting.  It’s important for Bernanke that he prepares the markets for future tapering – whenever that is, so expect language indicating that tapering is in our future – just not yet.  The June Empire Manufacturing Index came in better than expected this morning at 7.84, which was far better than last month’s -1.43.  Also, the NAHB Housing Market Index came in better than expected at 52 in June, which was an improvement from May’s 44.  The treasury market is flat this morning with the 10 year trading at 2.13%.  The Dow is up 160.

Information contained herein is based on sources we believe to be reliable but its accuracy is not guaranteed. Customers should rely on their own outside counsel or accounting firm for specific circumstances. The securities, yields or levels discussed herein are for illustration purposes and are not guaranteed, not obligations of any bank, thrift or other entity and are not insured by the FDIC.

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