December 10, 2012Daily Rates & Viewpoints From the Officers & Staff of TIB.
Economic Calendar
| Day | Date | Release | Survey | Prior |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tue | 12/11 | NFIB Small Business Optimism | 92.5 | 93.1 |
| Tue | 12/11 | Trade Balance | -$42.5B | -$41.5B |
| Tue | 12/11 | Wholesale Inventories | 0.4% | 1.1% |
| Tue | 12/11 | IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism | 50.0 | 48.6 |
| Wed | 12/12 | Import Price Index (MoM) | -0.5% | 0.5% |
| Wed | 12/12 | Import Price Index (YoY) | -1.0% | 0.4% |
| Wed | 12/12 | Monthly Budget Statement | -$169.0B | -$137.3B |
| Thu | 12/13 | Advance Retail Sales | 0.5% | -0.3% |
| Thu | 12/13 | Retail Sales Ex Auto & Gas | 0.3% | -0.3% |
| Thu | 12/13 | Retail Sales "Control Group" | 0.2% | -0.1% |
| Thu | 12/13 | Producer Price Index (MoM) | -0.5% | -0.2% |
| Thu | 12/13 | PPI Ex Food & Energy (MoM) | 0.2% | -0.2% |
| Thu | 12/13 | Producer Price Index (YoY) | 1.8% | 2.3% |
| Thu | 12/13 | PPI Ex Food & Energy (YoY) | 2.2% | 2.1% |
| Thu | 12/13 | Initial Jobless Claims | 369K | 370K |
| Thu | 12/13 | Continuing Claims | 3210K | 3205K |
| Thu | 12/13 | Business Inventories | 0.4% | 0.7% |
| Fri | 12/14 | Consumer Price Index (MoM) | -0.2% | 0.1% |
| Fri | 12/14 | CPI Ex Food & Energy (MoM) | 0.2% | 0.2% |
| Fri | 12/14 | Consumer Price Index (YoY) | 1.9% | 2.2% |
| Fri | 12/14 | CPI Ex Food & Energy (YoY) | 2.0% | 2.0% |
| Fri | 12/14 | Industrial Production | 0.3% | -0.4% |
| Fri | 12/14 | Capacity Utilization | 78.0% | 77.8% |
| Fri | 12/14 | Manufacturing (SIC) Production | 0.5% | -0.9% |
| Mon | 12/17 | Empire Manufacturing | 0.00 | -5.22 |
BQ Muni Calendar
| Date | State | Issuer | $ Amt (MM) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/10 | TX | Forney ISD - Ref | Negotiated | $ 5.535 |
| 12/10 | TX | Fort Bend MUD #138 | Negotiated | $ 7.055 |
| 12/10 | TX | Harris Co MUD #106 | Negotiated | $ 9.85 |
| 12/10 | TX | Harris Co MUD #71 | Negotiated | $ 4.17 |
| 12/17 | TX | Harris Co WC&ID #110 | Negotiated | $ 5.865 |
| 12/10 | TX | El Campo - Ref | Competitive | $ 1.335 |
| 12/10 | TX | El Campo - Certicates of Obligation | Competitive | $ 2.9 |
| 12/10 | TX | Harris Co MUD #450 | Competitive | $ 1.75 |
| 12/10 | TX | Calallen ISD | Competitive | $ 3.05 |
| 12/10 | TX | Yoakum ISD - Ref. | Competitive | $ 4.24 |
2012 FOMC Meetings
Market Levels @ 7:46 AM CST
| TIB Fed Funds & MMDA Rates - Previous Day | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Agent | 0.20% | Prin | 0.05% | MMDA | 0.30% | ||||
| STAR Prin | 0.10% | STAR MMDA | 0.35% | ||||||
| Key Indices/Commodities | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 - Month LIBOR | 0.21% | Dow Jones | 13155.13 |
| 3 - Month LIBOR | 0.31% | NASDAQ 100 | 2978.04 |
| 1-Yr LIBOR | 0.85% | S&P 500 | 1414.50 |
| 1-Yr CMT | 0.18% | Spot Gold | 1717.30 |
| Prime | 3.25% | Spot Silver | 33.33 |
| 3-yr LIBOR Swap/Offer | 0.42% | Spot Crude Oil | 86.58 |
| 5-yr LIBOR Swap/Offer | 0.73% | CRB Index | 294.70 |
| 3 Mo - Fed Fund Futures | 0.13% | 6 Mo - Fed Fund Futures | 0.13% |
| US Treasury Yields | US Non-Callable Agency Yields | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Yield | Maturity | Yield | Spread |
| 0.00% | 90 - Days | ||
| 0.03% | 180 - Days | ||
| 0.18% | 2 - Year | 0.25% | 7bp |
| 0.27% | 3 - Year | 0.36% | 9bp |
| 0.57% | 5 - Year | 0.74% | 17bp |
| 1.57% | 10 - Year | 1.76% | 19bp |
| 2.75% | 30 - Year | ||
| 139 BPs | Yield Curve(2's-10's) | ||
| Sample 1x Callable Agency Issues | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Description | Call Date | YTC | YTM |
| FNMA 1.50 12/24/20 | 12/14 | 1.50% | 1.50% |
| Select MBS Levels | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Description | Coupon | Yield | Spread/Duration* |
| 15-Yr FNMA | 3.00% | 1.32% | 90 / 3.55 |
| 30-Yr GNMA | 3.50% | 2.18% | 103 / 6.54 |
| *Duration @ 12 month Historical CPR | |||
| Morning Commentary: | Reed Bateman |
|---|---|
There has been a slight flight to quality this morning after an announcement by Italy’s prime minister that he intends to resign. That’s concerning for a country trying to resolve a debt crisis, and the thought is a change in government could negatively affect those efforts. We also have a good deal of Treasury supply for the market to absorb this week. Tomorrow, we’re set for $32B of the 3-year note to be sold, with $21B and $13B of the 10 and 30-year set for auction on Wednesday and Thursday, respectively. There are no economic releases this morning, but bond markets did lose value on Friday after stronger payroll and unemployment figures were released. The 10-year Treasury is up three 32nds in price this morning, yielding just north of 1.60%. Equity markets have opened slightly higher, with McDonalds leading the way on the positive side, but a cut in Apple’s share price estimate by a primary dealer has offset that a bit. |
|
Information contained herein is based on sources we believe to be reliable but its accuracy is not guaranteed. Customers should rely on their own outside counsel or accounting firm for specific circumstances. The securities, yields or levels discussed herein are for illustration purposes and are not guaranteed, not obligations of any bank, thrift or other entity and are not insured by the FDIC.
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