December 10, 2012Daily Rates & Viewpoints From the Officers & Staff of TIB.

Economic Calendar

Day Date Release Survey Prior
Tue 12/11 NFIB Small Business Optimism 92.5 93.1
Tue 12/11 Trade Balance -$42.5B -$41.5B
Tue 12/11 Wholesale Inventories 0.4% 1.1%
Tue 12/11 IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism 50.0 48.6
Wed 12/12 Import Price Index (MoM) -0.5% 0.5%
Wed 12/12 Import Price Index (YoY) -1.0% 0.4%
Wed 12/12 Monthly Budget Statement -$169.0B -$137.3B
Thu 12/13 Advance Retail Sales 0.5% -0.3%
Thu 12/13 Retail Sales Ex Auto & Gas 0.3% -0.3%
Thu 12/13 Retail Sales "Control Group" 0.2% -0.1%
Thu 12/13 Producer Price Index (MoM) -0.5% -0.2%
Thu 12/13 PPI Ex Food & Energy (MoM) 0.2% -0.2%
Thu 12/13 Producer Price Index (YoY) 1.8% 2.3%
Thu 12/13 PPI Ex Food & Energy (YoY) 2.2% 2.1%
Thu 12/13 Initial Jobless Claims 369K 370K
Thu 12/13 Continuing Claims 3210K 3205K
Thu 12/13 Business Inventories 0.4% 0.7%
Fri 12/14 Consumer Price Index (MoM) -0.2% 0.1%
Fri 12/14 CPI Ex Food & Energy (MoM) 0.2% 0.2%
Fri 12/14 Consumer Price Index (YoY) 1.9% 2.2%
Fri 12/14 CPI Ex Food & Energy (YoY) 2.0% 2.0%
Fri 12/14 Industrial Production 0.3% -0.4%
Fri 12/14 Capacity Utilization 78.0% 77.8%
Fri 12/14 Manufacturing (SIC) Production 0.5% -0.9%
Mon 12/17 Empire Manufacturing 0.00 -5.22
 

BQ Muni Calendar

Date State Issuer $ Amt (MM)
12/10 TX Forney ISD - Ref Negotiated $ 5.535
12/10 TX Fort Bend MUD #138 Negotiated $ 7.055
12/10 TX Harris Co MUD #106 Negotiated $ 9.85
12/10 TX Harris Co MUD #71 Negotiated $ 4.17
12/17 TX Harris Co WC&ID #110 Negotiated $ 5.865
12/10 TX El Campo - Ref Competitive $ 1.335
12/10 TX El Campo - Certicates of Obligation Competitive $ 2.9
12/10 TX Harris Co MUD #450 Competitive $ 1.75
12/10 TX Calallen ISD Competitive $ 3.05
12/10 TX Yoakum ISD - Ref. Competitive $ 4.24
 

2012 FOMC Meetings

December 11th

Market Levels @ 7:46 AM CST

TIB Fed Funds & MMDA Rates - Previous Day
Agent 0.20% Prin 0.05% MMDA 0.30%
STAR Prin 0.10% STAR MMDA 0.35%
Key Indices/Commodities
1 - Month LIBOR 0.21% Dow Jones 13155.13
3 - Month LIBOR 0.31% NASDAQ 100 2978.04
1-Yr LIBOR 0.85% S&P 500 1414.50
1-Yr CMT 0.18% Spot Gold 1717.30
Prime 3.25% Spot Silver 33.33
3-yr LIBOR Swap/Offer 0.42% Spot Crude Oil 86.58
5-yr LIBOR Swap/Offer 0.73% CRB Index 294.70
3 Mo - Fed Fund Futures 0.13% 6 Mo - Fed Fund Futures 0.13%
US Treasury Yields US Non-Callable Agency Yields
Yield Maturity Yield Spread
0.00% 90 - Days    
0.03% 180 - Days    
0.18% 2 - Year 0.25% 7bp
0.27% 3 - Year 0.36% 9bp
0.57% 5 - Year 0.74% 17bp
1.57% 10 - Year 1.76% 19bp
2.75% 30 - Year    
139 BPs Yield Curve(2's-10's)
Sample 1x Callable Agency Issues
Description Call Date YTC YTM
FNMA 1.50 12/24/20 12/14 1.50% 1.50%
Select MBS Levels
Description Coupon Yield Spread/Duration*
15-Yr FNMA 3.00% 1.32% 90 / 3.55
30-Yr GNMA 3.50% 2.18% 103 / 6.54
*Duration @ 12 month Historical CPR
Morning Commentary: Reed Bateman

There has been a slight flight to quality this morning after an announcement by Italy’s prime minister that he intends to resign.  That’s concerning for a country trying to resolve a debt crisis, and the thought is a change in government could negatively affect those efforts.  We also have a good deal of Treasury supply for the market to absorb this week.  Tomorrow, we’re set for $32B of the 3-year note to be sold, with $21B and $13B of the 10 and 30-year set for auction on Wednesday and Thursday, respectively.  There are no economic releases this morning, but bond markets did lose value on Friday after stronger payroll and unemployment figures were released.  The 10-year Treasury is up three 32nds in price this morning, yielding just north of 1.60%.  Equity markets have opened slightly higher, with McDonalds leading the way on the positive side, but a cut in Apple’s share price estimate by a primary dealer has offset that a bit. 

Information contained herein is based on sources we believe to be reliable but its accuracy is not guaranteed. Customers should rely on their own outside counsel or accounting firm for specific circumstances. The securities, yields or levels discussed herein are for illustration purposes and are not guaranteed, not obligations of any bank, thrift or other entity and are not insured by the FDIC.

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