| Day | Date | Release | Survey | Prior |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wed | 10/10 | Wholesale Inventories | 0.4% | 0.7% |
| Thu | 10/11 | Import Price Index (MoM) | 0.7% | 0.7% |
| Thu | 10/11 | Import Price Index (YoY) | -1.3% | -2.2% |
| Thu | 10/11 | Trade Balance | -$44.0B | -$42.0B |
| Thu | 10/11 | Initial Jobless Claims | 370K | 367K |
| Thu | 10/11 | Continuing Claims | 3275K | 3281K |
| Fri | 10/12 | Producer Price Index (MoM) | 0.8% | 1.7% |
| Fri | 10/12 | PPI Ex Food & Energy (MoM) | 0.2% | 0.2% |
| Fri | 10/12 | Producer Price Index (YoY) | 1.8% | 2.0% |
| Fri | 10/12 | PPI Ex Food & Energy (YoY) | 2.5% | 2.5% |
| Fri | 10/12 | U. of Michigan Confidence | 78.0 | 78.3 |
| Mon | 10/15 | Advance Retail Sales | 0.8% | 0.9% |
| Mon | 10/15 | Business Inventories | 0.4% | 0.8% |
| Tue | 10/16 | Consumer Price Index (MoM) | 0.5% | 0.6% |
| Tue | 10/16 | CPI Ex Food & Energy (MoM) | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| Tue | 10/16 | Consumer Price Index (YoY) | 1.8% | 1.7% |
| Tue | 10/16 | CPI Ex Food & Energy (YoY) | 2.0% | 1.9% |
| Tue | 10/16 | Consumer Price Index NSA | 231.360 | 230.379 |
| Tue | 10/16 | Industrial Production | 0.2% | -1.2% |
| Tue | 10/16 | Capacity Utilization | 78.3% | 78.2% |
| Date | State | Issuer | $ Amt (MM) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10/8 | TX | Bell County - Ref | Negotiated | $ 8.38 |
| 10/8 | TX | Rankin Road West MUD | Negotiated | $ 6.33 |
| 10/8 | TX | Santa Fe ISD - Ref | Negotiated | $ 7.845 |
| 10/8 | TX | Veribest ISD - Ref | Negotiated | $ 1.5 |
| 10/15 | TX | Deer Park - Cert of Oblig | Negotiated | $ 4.435 |
| 10/15 | TX | Deer Park - Ref | Negotiated | $ 4.48 |
| 10/11 | TX | Luling | Competitive | $ 3.15 |
| 10/11 | TX | Sheldon ISD - Ref | Competitive | $ 9.56 |
| 10/15 | TX | Missouri City | Competitive | $ 1.4 |
| TIB Fed Funds & MMDA Rates - Previous Day | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Agent | 0.20% | Prin | 0.05% | MMDA | 0.30% | ||||
| STAR Prin | 0.10% | STAR MMDA | 0.35% | ||||||
| Key Indices/Commodities | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 - Month LIBOR | 0.21% | Dow Jones | 13583.65 |
| 3 - Month LIBOR | 0.34% | NASDAQ 100 | 3112.35 |
| 1-Yr LIBOR | 0.95% | S&P 500 | 1452.70 |
| 1-Yr CMT | 0.18% | Spot Gold | 1777.70 |
| Prime | 3.25% | Spot Silver | 34.00 |
| 3-yr LIBOR Swap/Offer | 0.46% | Spot Crude Oil | 90.46 |
| 5-yr LIBOR Swap/Offer | 0.80% | CRB Index | 306.17 |
| 3 Mo - Fed Fund Futures | 0.13% | 6 Mo - Fed Fund Futures | 0.13% |
| US Treasury Yields | US Non-Callable Agency Yields | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Yield | Maturity | Yield | Spread |
| 0.00% | 90 - Days | ||
| 0.03% | 180 - Days | ||
| 0.20% | 2 - Year | 0.24% | 4bp |
| 0.29% | 3 - Year | 0.37% | 8bp |
| 0.63% | 5 - Year | 0.79% | 16bp |
| 1.69% | 10 - Year | 1.91% | 22bp |
| 2.91% | 30 - Year | ||
| 149 BPs | Yield Curve(2's-10's) | ||
| Sample 1x Callable Agency Issues | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Description | Call Date | YTC | YTM |
| FNMA 1 04/30/18 | 10/13 | 1.00% | 1.00% |
| Select MBS Levels | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Description | Coupon | Yield | Spread/Duration* |
| 15-Yr FNMA | 3.00% | 1.35% | 86 / 3.72 |
| 30-Yr GNMA | 3.50% | 2.28% | 67 / 7.75 |
| *Duration @ 12 month Historical CPR | |||
| Morning Commentary: | Blake Scharlach |
|---|---|
And now, for something completely different (all apologies to Monty Python) – a different perspective on our public debt… US debt has shrunk to a six-year low relative to the size of the economy. Total indebtedness (including consumers, businesses and governments) has fallen to 3.29X GDP, the lowest level since 2006. Our worst, in 2008, was 3.59X. The federal government still has a spending (and borrowing) problem, but ultimately, a reduction in supply of total debt relates to an increase in price, which in turn, keeps borrowing rates low. We’re still (obviously) an over-levered economy, but it appears that the rest of America seems to be getting it together while the federal government isn’t. The only economic release of the day is the NFIB Small Business Optimism Index for September, which came in at a 92.8, which was slightly lower than the 92.9 August number. Economists were expecting a 93.5, so it was a pretty significant miss. The Dow opened flat this morning and the 10-year yield is hovering around the 1.70% range. The long bond remains below 3% at 2.95%. |
|
Information contained herein is based on sources we believe to be reliable but its accuracy is not guaranteed. Customers should rely on their own outside counsel or accounting firm for specific circumstances. The securities, yields or levels discussed herein are for illustration purposes and are not guaranteed, not obligations of any bank, thrift or other entity and are not insured by the FDIC.
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