October 09, 2012Daily Rates & Viewpoints From the Officers & Staff of TIB.

Economic Calendar

Day Date Release Survey Prior
Wed 10/10 Wholesale Inventories 0.4% 0.7%
Thu 10/11 Import Price Index (MoM) 0.7% 0.7%
Thu 10/11 Import Price Index (YoY) -1.3% -2.2%
Thu 10/11 Trade Balance -$44.0B -$42.0B
Thu 10/11 Initial Jobless Claims 370K 367K
Thu 10/11 Continuing Claims 3275K 3281K
Fri 10/12 Producer Price Index (MoM) 0.8% 1.7%
Fri 10/12 PPI Ex Food & Energy (MoM) 0.2% 0.2%
Fri 10/12 Producer Price Index (YoY) 1.8% 2.0%
Fri 10/12 PPI Ex Food & Energy (YoY) 2.5% 2.5%
Fri 10/12 U. of Michigan Confidence 78.0 78.3
Mon 10/15 Advance Retail Sales 0.8% 0.9%
Mon 10/15 Business Inventories 0.4% 0.8%
Tue 10/16 Consumer Price Index (MoM) 0.5% 0.6%
Tue 10/16 CPI Ex Food & Energy (MoM) 0.1% 0.1%
Tue 10/16 Consumer Price Index (YoY) 1.8% 1.7%
Tue 10/16 CPI Ex Food & Energy (YoY) 2.0% 1.9%
Tue 10/16 Consumer Price Index NSA 231.360 230.379
Tue 10/16 Industrial Production 0.2% -1.2%
Tue 10/16 Capacity Utilization 78.3% 78.2%
 

BQ Muni Calendar

Date State Issuer $ Amt (MM)
10/8 TX Bell County - Ref Negotiated $ 8.38
10/8 TX Rankin Road West MUD Negotiated $ 6.33
10/8 TX Santa Fe ISD - Ref Negotiated $ 7.845
10/8 TX Veribest ISD - Ref Negotiated $ 1.5
10/15 TX Deer Park - Cert of Oblig Negotiated $ 4.435
10/15 TX Deer Park - Ref Negotiated $ 4.48
10/11 TX Luling Competitive $ 3.15
10/11 TX Sheldon ISD - Ref Competitive $ 9.56
10/15 TX Missouri City Competitive $ 1.4
 

2012 FOMC Meetings

October 24th
December 11th

Market Levels @ 8:03 AM CDT

TIB Fed Funds & MMDA Rates - Previous Day
Agent 0.20% Prin 0.05% MMDA 0.30%
STAR Prin 0.10% STAR MMDA 0.35%
Key Indices/Commodities
1 - Month LIBOR 0.21% Dow Jones 13583.65
3 - Month LIBOR 0.34% NASDAQ 100 3112.35
1-Yr LIBOR 0.95% S&P 500 1452.70
1-Yr CMT 0.18% Spot Gold 1777.70
Prime 3.25% Spot Silver 34.00
3-yr LIBOR Swap/Offer 0.46% Spot Crude Oil 90.46
5-yr LIBOR Swap/Offer 0.80% CRB Index 306.17
3 Mo - Fed Fund Futures 0.13% 6 Mo - Fed Fund Futures 0.13%
US Treasury Yields US Non-Callable Agency Yields
Yield Maturity Yield Spread
0.00% 90 - Days    
0.03% 180 - Days    
0.20% 2 - Year 0.24% 4bp
0.29% 3 - Year 0.37% 8bp
0.63% 5 - Year 0.79% 16bp
1.69% 10 - Year 1.91% 22bp
2.91% 30 - Year    
149 BPs Yield Curve(2's-10's)
Sample 1x Callable Agency Issues
Description Call Date YTC YTM
FNMA 1 04/30/18 10/13 1.00% 1.00%
Select MBS Levels
Description Coupon Yield Spread/Duration*
15-Yr FNMA 3.00% 1.35% 86 / 3.72
30-Yr GNMA 3.50% 2.28% 67 / 7.75
*Duration @ 12 month Historical CPR
Morning Commentary: Blake Scharlach

And now, for something completely different (all apologies to Monty Python) – a different perspective on our public debt… US debt has shrunk to a six-year low relative to the size of the economy.  Total indebtedness (including consumers, businesses and governments) has fallen to 3.29X GDP, the lowest level since 2006.  Our worst, in 2008, was 3.59X.  The federal government still has a spending (and borrowing) problem, but ultimately, a reduction in supply of total debt relates to an increase in price, which in turn, keeps borrowing rates low.  We’re still (obviously) an over-levered economy, but it appears that the rest of America seems to be getting it together while the federal government isn’t. The only economic release of the day is the NFIB Small Business Optimism Index for September, which came in at a 92.8, which was slightly lower than the 92.9 August number.  Economists were expecting a 93.5, so it was a pretty significant miss.  The Dow opened flat this morning and the 10-year yield is hovering around the 1.70% range.  The long bond remains below 3% at 2.95%.

Information contained herein is based on sources we believe to be reliable but its accuracy is not guaranteed. Customers should rely on their own outside counsel or accounting firm for specific circumstances. The securities, yields or levels discussed herein are for illustration purposes and are not guaranteed, not obligations of any bank, thrift or other entity and are not insured by the FDIC.

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