July 28, 2014Daily Rates & Viewpoints From the Officers & Staff of TIB.

Economic Calendar

Day Date Release Survey Prior
Mon 7/28 Markit US Services PMI 59.8 61.0
Mon 7/28 Pending Home Sales MoM 0.5% 6.1%
Mon 7/28 Pending Home Sales YoY -5.2% -6.9%
Mon 7/28 Dallas Fed Manf. Activity 12.0 11.4
Tue 7/29 S and P/CS 20 City MoM SA 0.30% 0.19%
Tue 7/29 S and P/CS Composite-20 YoY 10.00% 10.82%
Tue 7/29 S and P/CaseShiller Home Price Index 171.25 168.71
Tue 7/29 Consumer Confidence Index 85.5 85.2
Wed 7/30 ADP Employment Change 230K 281K
Wed 7/30 GDP Annualized QoQ 3.0% -2.9%
Wed 7/30 Personal Consumption 1.9% 1.0%
Wed 7/30 GDP Price Index 1.8% 1.3%
Wed 7/30 Core PCE QoQ 1.9% 1.2%
Wed 7/30 Fed QE3 Pace $25B $35B
Wed 7/30 Fed Pace of Treasury Pur $15B $20B
Wed 7/30 Fed Pace of MBS Purchases $10B $15B
Wed 7/30 FOMC Rate Decision 0.25% 0.25%
Thu 7/31 Employment Cost Index 0.5% 0.3%
Thu 7/31 Initial Jobless Claims 302K 284K
Thu 7/31 Continuing Claims 2491K 2500K
Thu 7/31 ISM Milwaukee 61 60.57
Thu 7/31 Chicago Purchasing Manager 63.0 62.6
Fri 8/1 Change in Nonfarm Payrolls 231K 288K
Fri 8/1 Change in Private Payrolls 228K 262K
Fri 8/1 Change in Manufacturing Payrolls 14K 16K
Fri 8/1 Unemployment Rate 6.1% 6.1%
Fri 8/1 Average Hourly Earnings MoM 0.2% 0.2%
Fri 8/1 Average Hourly Earnings YoY 2.2% 2.0%
Fri 8/1 Average Weekly Hours All Employees 34.5 34.5
Fri 8/1 Personal Income 0.4% 0.4%
Fri 8/1 Personal Spending 0.4% 0.2%
Fri 8/1 PCE Deflator MoM 0.2% 0.2%
Fri 8/1 PCE Deflator YoY 1.7% 1.8%
Fri 8/1 Markit US Manufacturing PMI 56.5 56.3
Fri 8/1 Univ. of Michigan Confidence 81.5 81.3
Fri 8/1 ISM Manufacturing 56.0 55.3
Fri 8/1 ISM Prices Paid 59.0 58.0
Fri 8/1 Construction Spending 0.5% 0.1%
Fri 8/1 Domestic Vehicle Sales 13.24M 13.25M
Fri 8/1 Total Vehicle Sales 16.70M 16.92M
 

BQ Muni Calendar

Date State Issuer $ Amt (MM)
7/28 TX CANTON ISD - REF -CABS NEGOTIATED $ 6.425
7/28 TX TRENTON ISD -REF NEGOTIATED $ 3.785
7/28 TX WACO ISD NEGOTIATED $ 8.43
7/28 TX WATAUGA -CTFS OBLG COMPETITIVE $ 3.5
7/29 TX PRINCETON ISD COMPETITIVE $ 7.09
7/29 TX FARMERSVILLE-REF COMPETITIVE $ 2.185
7/30 TX FORT BEND CO LID #20 COMPETITIVE $ 1.25
8/4 TX WESTON MUD COMPETITIVE $ 7.82
 

2014 FOMC Meetings:

July 29-30

Sept 16-17

Oct 28-29

Dec 16-17

Market Levels @ 6:55 AM CDT

TIB Fed Funds & MMDA Rates - Previous Day
Agent 0.20% Prin 0.05% MMDA 0.30%
STAR Prin 0.10% STAR MMDA 0.35%
Key Indices/Commodities
1 - Month LIBOR 0.15% Dow Jones 16960.57
3 - Month LIBOR 0.23% NASDAQ 100 4449.56
1-Yr LIBOR 0.56% S&P 500 1969.40
1-Yr CMT 0.11% Spot Gold 1307.10
Prime 3.25% Spot Silver 20.67
3-yr LIBOR Swap/Offer 1.14% Spot Crude Oil 101.75
5-yr LIBOR Swap/Offer 1.81% CRB Index 298.34
3 Mo - Fed Fund Futures 0.1% 6 Mo - Fed Fund Futures 0.12%
US Treasury Yields US Non-Callable Agency Yields
Yield Maturity Yield Spread
0.00% 90 - Days    
0.00% 180 - Days    
0.44% 2 - Year 0.47% 3bp
0.93% 3 - Year 0.94% 1bp
1.65% 5 - Year 1.74% 9bp
2.44% 10 - Year 2.93% 49bp
3.21% 30 - Year    
2000 BPs Yield Curve(2's-10's)
Sample 1x Callable Agency Issues
Description Call Date YTC YTM
FNMA 1.1 08/22/17 8/16 1.10% 1.10%
Select MBS Levels
Description Coupon Yield Spread/Duration*
15-Yr FNMA 3.00% 2.23% 39 / 5.03
30-Yr GNMA 3.50% 2.9% 69 / 6.16
*Duration @ 12 month Historical CPR
Morning Commentary: David Terrell

The treasury market is almost unchanged this morning despite a flurry of deals and poor home data. The 10 year note continues to trade below 2.50%.  June’s home sales declined 1.1% in June and it is now down 4.5% year over year. The M&A sphere continues to be active after Zillow agreed to purchase Trulia and Family Dollar purchased Dollar Tree.  Despite the deals, equities are lower on the day. The FOMC committee will meet tomorrow and Wednesday, but no one is expecting anything different. Consensus is for the committee to continue the tapering of the Quantitative Easing program by another $10 billion split between treasuries and mortgages.

 

Information contained herein is based on sources we believe to be reliable but its accuracy is not guaranteed. Customers should rely on their own outside counsel or accounting firm for specific circumstances. The securities, yields or levels discussed herein are for illustration purposes and are not guaranteed, not obligations of any bank, thrift or other entity and are not insured by the FDIC.

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